September 15 marked the 10th anniversary of the global economic crisis. The crisis of 2008 was the most destructive since the global crisis of the 1930s. It was unleashed by the US banks through speculation by bank derivatives. To save the backbone of the banking system, the US Treasury was forced to deposit 421 billion dollar into the cash registers of the largest banks. All these budgetary investments have completely returned to the state treasury by 2013.
In European countries, states were forced to lay out even more, 465 billion euro and put guarantees in favour of some banks. These funds also returned in the form of dividends.
In addition, according to BCG, Western banks were fined 231 billion euro for participating in speculative transactions, most of which, 63%, was paid by American banks.
According to the Sigtarp agency, only in the United States 324 people from the financial and banking system were convicted for participating in speculation.
Only by 2015 the world economy managed to return to the pre-crisis parameters of economic growth. Naturally, the Western press and analyst are full of assessments of this crisis, mostly about lessons and new risks.
The paradox of this crisis in Kazakhstan is that the country, being unconnected with the subprime and having no relationship to the Lehman Brothers bank, has suffered too. The republic entered the abyss of the crisis, when the world economy was already out of the tailspin.
The banking system of Kazakhstan continues to collapse. With the exception of two or three banks, it turned out to be on a budgetary dependence, while Western banks are at a stage of prosperity, supporting the economy with cheap loans and fueling their state budget with billions in profits.
Kazakhstan is much inferior to all the countries with similar problems in shortage of goods and services.
If the inflation rate in the group of countries fluctuates in the corridor from 0 to 4% and 4-6% (Saudi Arabia), with the exception of the crisis year 2008, Kazakhstan's inflation rate in 2008 and 2016 goes off scale. The economy is on the "inflation needle", and monetary emission is used as doping.
The policy of expensive money, or monetary restriction, by the National Bank of Kazakhstan against the backdrop of credit expansion and the cheap money policy of central banks of all developed countries such as Japan, the United States and the euro area countries, is perceived an anachronism.
In other words, if the central banks of Western countries and Japan are betting on the revival of the economy, the high rates of the National Bank limit the access of enterprises to bank resources.
The consequence of this syndrome is a decrease in the real sector, a violation of the monetary balance and the periodic devaluation of the tenge.
The dynamics of GDP has a stable trend towards success after the peak reached in 2013 with high oil prices. The decline in oil prices is also accompanied by a depreciation of the national currency against the dollar and the euro. The fall in GDP and the reduction of the commodity mass with the growth of the money supply are one of the main causes of the devaluation tension.
The tenge is experiencing all signs of a hypertensive crisis.
Thus, the stage crisis of the situation in the national economy is unambiguously perceived with a negative assessment.
Undoubtedly, such an alarming situation needs comments and explanations by the authorities, which until 2015 denied the existence of a crisis in Kazakhstan.
Meanwhile, a new economic crisis is brewing, which may prove even more dangerous for the national economy.
Reported by Forbes Kazakhstan.
