Kassym-Jomart Tokayev praised the President of the European Council's contribution to strengthening the special partnership between Kazakhstan and the EU.

During the ceremony, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev highlighted António Costa's outstanding contribution to strengthening the partnership between Kazakhstan and the European Union.

"I am pleased to note that the scale and depth of our...

According to António Costa, the partnership between the European Union and Kazakhstan is producing concrete results.

"This week in Brussels, we began negotiations on a visa facilitation agreement. I understand very well how important these negotiations are for both the citizens of Kazakhstan and the citizens of Europe. Once this agreement...

In his speech, the Head of State emphasized that the negotiations with President António Costa were very productive, in an open, friendly, and constructive atmosphere.

"Kazakhstan and the European Union enjoy comprehensive cooperation based on trust and mutual understanding. We discussed a wide range of issues and reaffirmed our unwavering commitment...

Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov held a meeting on the implementation of the Head of State’s initiative Taza Qazaqstan.

A report was presented by Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources Yerlan Nysanbayev on environmental protection measures, tree planting activities, the fight against unauthorized landfills, and the implementation of...

Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan Alibek Bakayev received the Ambassador of the State of Israel Yoav Bistritsky.

During the meeting, the parties discussed the prospects for the development of bilateral cooperation, as well as the schedule of upcoming high- and top-level events.

The sides also exchanged views...

Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan Yermek Kosherbayev participated in the 32nd meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

The meeting’s participants reviewed the results of the Finnish Chairpersonship, exchanged views on assessments of key security challenges in the...

A Kazakh delegation led by KazAID Board Chairman Arken Arystanov took part in the 7th Asia-Pacific Regional Directors Forum in Bangkok, Thailand.

The event was organised by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) in conjunction with the Thailand International Cooperation Agency (TICA).

During the forum,...

The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) forecasts that the country's economic growth will slow to 3.5–4.5% in 2026before accelerating again to 4–5% in 2027. The regulator has also raised its inflation forecast for 2026, expecting it to be 9.5–12.5%.

In the NBK's report "Report on Monetary Policy. November 2025," the projected slowdown in gross domestic product(GDP) growth is linked...

Economic activity in Kazakhstan saw another stabilisation in October. The Short-Term Economic Indicator (STEI)for January-October grew by 9.1%, a rate comparable to September's values after peaking in August.

High economic activity is noted to be maintained, primarily supported by growth in oil production, active fiscal stimulus, and stable consumer demand. Structural analysis of the sources of growth...

As of early November 2025, the banking sector of Kazakhstan is represented by 23 second-tier banks (STBs), 15 of which are with foreign participation, including 10 subsidiary organisations. Today, the country's banking sector positions itself as a stable structure that has undergone significant transformation.

According to the latest data, Kazakhstan's STBs demonstrate stable growth across all key indicators. For instance, bank assets...

According to the Ministry of Finance, 189.7 billion tenge is allocated for republican investment projects in 2025. As of 1 November, the utilisation for them amounted to 89.8 billion tenge—this is 88% of the plan for 10 months, economist Ruslan Sultanov noted.

Two key budget articles take almost 70 per cent of all investments

It is noted that the largest amounts of funds...

The National Bank published data on Kazakhstan's participation in global value chains. The country primarily supplies raw materials to the EU, China, and Russia but has low participation in the production of complex products.

According to the study, Kazakhstan predominantly generates exports using products manufactured domestically. On average, from 2000 to 2022, the share of domestic value added in exports was about 85%. At...

Gauyez Nurmukhambetov, Mayor (Governor) of the North Kazakhstan region, spoke about large foreign projects being implemented in the region.

According to his data, several major foreign companies currently operate in the North Kazakhstan region:

· Qatari company "Ultradecor" has begun construction of a plant for the production of chipboard and laminated chipboard. The investment volume exceeds 90 billion tenge. The...

The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) issued a statement regarding the significant strengthening of the tenge. A stable strengthening of the tenge exchange rate to levels of 499−500 tenge per 1 US dollar (a 9% increase) has been observed since October of the current year.

The NBK states that this reflects a combination of favourable external conditions, consistent macroeconomic policy, and improved investor...

The tenge has strengthened to 499−500 per US dollar (a 9% increase) since October, amid favourable external conditions, macroeconomic policy, and increased investor expectations, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK)reports.

The NBK reports that global oil prices are stably holding above the 60 US dollar per barrel mark. Simultaneously, the US Federal Reserve System's rate cut cycle contributed to the weakening of the global...

Average weighted       Trend,       Volume,       Trend,     Best     Best

Instrument rate, KZT      KZT      th.units     th.units      bid      ask

USDKZT_TOM    500.60    -3.03    521,243.70  +178,562.65   505.81   498.25

USDCNY_TOM    7.0669  +0.0068         85.00   -19,170.00   7.0683   7.0645

EURKZT_TOM    583.17    -3.46        557.73      -462.27   589.97   581.08

EURUSD_TOM    1.1656  -0.0008         60.00       -20.00   1.1679   1.1644

RUBKZT_TOM    6.5127  +0.0101  4,569,929.95  -934,770.05   6.5670   6.4850

CNYKZT_TOM   70.7575  -0.4551     12,800.00  -149,810.00  71.4652  70.6300

USDCNY_SPT...

By shares trading results on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) on December 4, 2025, the KASE Index increased by 4.63 points (0.07%) from 6,841.47 to 6,846.10.

The first deal fixed the index at 6,845.28. During the trades the maximum value made up 6,863.57, the minimum 6,803.60.

The volume of deals in shares...

Kazakhstan's oil and gas condensate production declined by 6% in the first two days of December, an industry source said on Thursday, following a Ukrainian drone attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's (CPC) Black Sea loading facility.

The CPC pipeline, which carries over 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports and handles more...

Oil transportation through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) continues as normal, said Kazakhstan's Vice Minister of Energy, Yerlan Akbarov, during a briefing in the Senate.

He indicated that one of the berths is fully functional, while efforts are currently underway to integrate the second berth into the operational framework. At present,...

Kazakhstan might suspend the transit of Russian oil over fears of falling under sanctions. Following the introduction of sweeping sanctions by Western countries against Rosneft, the route for Russian oil supplies to China is at risk.

The Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan has sent an official request to the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control...

There are no restrictions on oil transportation through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which was subjected to an attack, said the Vice Minister of Energy of Kazakhstan, Yerlan Akbarov.

"At the moment, transportation is proceeding normally. One berth is fully operational, and work is underway to connect the second berth to the system. Currently, there are no...

The Government of Kazakhstan assesses the damage inflicted on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) following the attack by unmanned vessels.

According to the Vice Minister of Energy, Yerlan Akbarov, the situation is under special control of the government, and the transportation of Kazakh oil is proceeding normally.

"One berth is fully operational, and the second is being connected...

Serik Shapkenov, the regional Governor, spoke about the sectors that will drive the development of the Atyrau regiononce oil reserves are depleted. "There is a future, don't worry about it," he said. "We are implementing a number of projects in the petrochemical sector. And while we previously exported crude oil and gas as commodities,...

The Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan has updated the register of "foreign agents" in Kazakhstan. This is a list of individuals and entities that receive money from foreign states. The new list has been shortened by 14 entries. The Russian defence sector was excluded, but organisations from the energy and financial sectors were added. Some Kazakh journalists...

Kazakhstan hopes to expand cooperation with Azerbaijan in the gas sector, the Deputy Director General for Production at KMG-Karachaganak, Andrey Kan, announced

He made the remark on the sidelines of the SPE 2025 Caspian Technical Conference in Baku.

"We highly appreciate the cooperation between Azerbaijan's State Oil Company SOCAR and our national...

Mmembers are most likely to maintain its current oil production commitments within the OPEC+ alliance through 2026 following the 40th OPEC–non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting held on Nov. 30. Minister of Energy Luz Elena González represented Mexico at the session and confirmed that member countries agreed to extend the group’s coordinated extraction...

Kazakhstan is preparing to tighten requirements for the composition of participants in uranium mining projects: the share of foreign companies in new enterprises cannot exceed 25%, said Asset Makhambetov, Deputy Chairman of the Agency for Atomic Energy. He noted that currently there are still structures in the country where foreign partners own controlling stakes. According to Asset Makhambetov, the current...

Kazakhstan introduces a number of restrictions for private investors in uranium exploration and mining. Shakarym Buktugutov, a member of the upper house of parliament, spoke about the new legislative amendments approved by the Senate today. The document will now be sent to the President for signature.

"The bill proposes to limit the issuance of licenses for the exploration of...

Kazakhstan plans to take a leading position in the mining and production of rare earth metals. The Ministry of Industry and Construction announced the upcoming projects.

The Ministry clarified that rare earth metals are not currently mined in the country. However, Kazakhstan holds leading positions in the production of titanium, beryllium, niobium, tantalum, rhenium, copper, lead, zinc,...

Qarmet JSC announced the issuance of a second tranche of bonds for $500 million, with a sevenyear maturity and a coupon rate of 10.2% per annum.

According to the plan, $150 million of the raised funds will be allocated to refinance existing obligations to the Development Bank of Kazakhstan or other banks with a DBK guarantee. The remaining portion, $350 million, will be used...

The Kazakhstan economy gained another stable export position thanks to the efforts of Chinese investors: the Republic of Kazakhstan established the supply of tungsten concentrates abroad in the first nine months of 2025. The emergence of a new major Mining and Metallurgical Complex (MMC) enterprise, while an undoubted success, simultaneously confirms the country's persistent structural problem: orientation...

Work on the digital transformation of the geological sector continues.

The National Geological Service (NGS) ensures comprehensive service support for investors and enhances the efficiency of managing the mineral resource base of Kazakhstan. NGS work focuses on three key areas: the collection, storage, and digitalisation of geological information.

To date, over 3.8 million units of data have been digitalised, representing 83% of the...

The Head of State set an task of exceptional importance: to ensure the large-scale commissioning of new power sources with a total capacity of 26 GW by 2035. These are not just ambitious figures; the stability of the energy system in the face of growing consumption requires accelerated development.

The successful implementation of 68 planned...

The construction of a confectionery factory by the Russian company Bakerton is underway in the North Kazakhstan region. The investment amount for it is 37 billion tenge, according to the regional Governor.

During a briefing at the Central Communications Service, Gauyez Nurmukhambetov, the Governor of the North Kazakhstan region, reported that 17 projects worth 280.2 billion tenge are being implemented in the Qyzylzhar special economic...

A subsidiary of the Qatari holding Ultradecor Trading Kazakhstan is building a factory for the production of chipboard (DOSP) wooden boards in the North Kazakhstan region. The investment volume for the project is 96.7 billion tenge, and the company is already clearing the site for the factory.

During a briefing at the Central Communications Service, Gauyez Nurmukhambetov, the Governor...

Cement production capacity in Kazakhstan was utilised at 60.7% in 2024. This data was published by the statistics department of the Eurasian Economic Commission on 2 December.

The indicator generally remained almost unchanged compared to the previous year, 2023 (60.5%). The lowest utilisation rate for Portland cement production capacity in Kazakhstan over the last five years was observed...

The Ministry of Trade published a list of products it proposes to add to the list of socially important food products (SIFPs). The draft order to expand the list of SIFPs is posted on the "Open NPA" portal.

While the list previously included 19 product names, it is now proposed to increase that number to 33. The Ministry...

The construction of a greenhouse with the participation of a Polish company has begun in Shymkent. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the project is estimated at 69 billion tenge. The initiator of the facility's launch is the Polish company FabeAgro.

The greenhouse area will be 144 hectares, where vegetables, melons, gourds, root crops, and tubers will be grown. The complex's...

Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), through its actions, is depriving Kazakh agrarians of export markets and handing them over to competitors from Russia and Uzbekistan.

KTZ introduced a conventional ban on accepting goods for shipment through the Saryagash intergovernmental junction point (IGJP), which is the route for Kazakh grain exports to Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan). However, the...

The launch of the direct purchase program for the 2025 grain harvest into the Food Corporation's resources is expected in December. Farmers will be offered market prices for wheat, barley, sunflower, flax, and rapeseed.

According to preliminary information, the price for ordinary Class 3 wheat (gluten 23–24%) will be 88,000–90,000 tenge per tonne (including VAT). The price will vary depending on quality characteristics, such as the falling...

The potential for shipping along the Irtysh River, which connects Russia, Kazakhstan, and China, remains significantly underestimated. The effective development of this route could bring enormous benefits to all participating countries, according to Sergey Sandulov, General Director of Severrechflot JSC.

According to Sandulov, the Russian northern river fleet has not only maintained its position but also significantly strengthened it over the past two...

Following the attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) infrastructure, Kazakhstan once again felt how vulnerable its economy is when tied to one or two export routes. Logistics corridors have long been discussed on international platforms, but now the discussion is not just about transit but about the survival of the state in a world of growing...

The Department of the Agency for Financial Monitoring in the Aktobe region completed the investigation into the former head of the Aviation Repair Factory No. 406 Civil Aviation JSC regarding the theft of budgetary funds. The suspect used his official position to organise a scheme for the illegal write-off of inventory items intended for aircraft repair, according to...

Kazakhstan has significantly strengthened its position in drug security: 37% of essential medicines recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO) are now produced domestically. This refers to the most in-demand medicines—from therapy for chronic diseases to emergency and resuscitation care.

The Ministry of Health reported that the share of domestic drugs in the WHO-recommended list of essential medicinesnow...

The eastern route of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) plans to transport about 1 million tonnes of cargo. The Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Maxim Reshetnikov, announced this at the plenary session of the VTB Russia Calling! forum.

· According to him, the eastern section of the INSTC through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan is actively operating at the moment. "Our partners have done a great job there. The...

In recent years, the EAEU has signed FTAs with Vietnam, Iran, and Serbia, and these agreements have lifted mutual trade turnover as if the region were assembling its own economic exoskeleton. The numbers stop being statistics and turn into capital flows that build their own energy outside the Anglo-American design...

The Russian Federation's economic indicators for October, published recently by Rosstat, show a noticeable acceleration in the growth of economic activity. According to the Ministry of Economic Development's (MinEk) estimates (monthly assessments based on new Rosstat data), GDP growth accelerated to 1.6% year-on-year in October, following 0.9% year-on-year in September and 0.6% year-on-year in the third quarter. Excluding seasonal factors, MinEk estimates growth compared to September at 1.1% month-on-month seasonally adjusted (SA), after 0.5% month-on-month SA in September. Overall for the ten months of 2025 (10M25), economic growth remained at 1.0%, the same level as in January-September.

The acceleration of GDP growth in October is linked to a significant increase in growth rates across several areas:

· Industry: Reflected locally in the military-industrial complex (MIC) sectors, drug manufacturing, oil refining, and the extractive industry.

· Consumption: Where the main role appears to be the rise in demand for cars before the increase in the recycling fee, but acceleration in annual dynamics is also noted in food products, services, and public catering.

· Freight Turnover, Construction, Agriculture: These sectors also showed improved dynamics.

The growth in industrial production and retail sales in October significantly exceeded consensus forecasts. Demand may have been supported by a strong surge in corporate lending (+2.5% month-on-month), increased rates of mortgage lending (+1.2% month-on-month), and car lending (+3% month-on-month), as well as a decrease in savings activity (slower inflow of population funds into banks in the third quarter of 2025). Unemployment remained near the historical low of September (2.2%), and wage growth (September data) accelerated but remained lower than in September 2024 and the average for 9M25. However, operating data (such as the hh.ru index) suggests that the labour market is becoming increasingly competitive for workers. Overall, operative indicators for November suggest that the October acceleration in economic growth is unlikely to be sustained. Although the October data may improve the expected weak economic dynamics for the fourth quarter of 2025, the expected GDP growth for the year remains at 0.8%.

Key Economic Indicators for the Russian Federation (Year-on-Year Change, %)

Investments in fixed capital fell by 3.1% in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year, marking the first decline since the third quarter of 2020. Overall for 9M25, investments in fixed capital grew by only 0.5%, compared to a 9.0% growth in 9M24. The Bank of Russia's "Enterprise Monitoring" indicates that the growing influence of economic uncertainty, limitations on the volume of own funds for financing investments, and restrained demandfor enterprise products are increasing factors constraining investment activity.

Inflation, meanwhile, continues to slow. Rosstat data shows that the rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 25 November to 1 December was just 0.04%, and 5.27% since the start of the year. Annual inflation (MinEk estimate) decreased to 6.61%. Extrapolating the weekly data gives a very low inflation estimate for November (0.43%) compared to 1.43% in November 2024, despite the expected inflationary impact of factors like the change in the calculation methodology for the recycling fee (1 December) and the increase in the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate to 22% (from 1 January 2026). However, data for the full month may differ noticeably, as the weekly CPI basket includes a fairly narrow sample of goods and services. Currently, the inflation trajectory is below the Central Bank's October base forecast for the end of the year (6.5–7%).

At the Central Bank's meeting on 19 December, a difficult choice will likely have to be made. On one hand, there is faster-than-forecast inflation deceleration (a very strong argument for lowering the key rate), and on the other, accelerating consumption and lending, increasing already high inflation expectations of the population and businesses, and the anticipated influence of "one-off inflationary factors" at the end of 2025 and in the first half of 2026.

The Index of output of goods and services across basic economic activities in October 2025 accelerated its growth to 2.9% year-on-year (the maximum since the start of the year), after 0.8% year-on-year in September and 0.4% year-on-year in August. This could be due to improved dynamics in industrial production, retail trade turnover, transport freight turnover, construction, and agriculture. However, the dynamic of wholesale trade again fell into the negative. Economic dynamics remain highly heterogeneous across sectors but have significantly slowed overall compared to last year.

The growth of industrial production in the Russian Federation in October 2025 surprisingly and sharply accelerated to 3.1% year-on-year (the maximum since the start of the year), following 0.3% year-on-year in September. The Interfax consensus forecast suggested a further slowdown to just 0.1% year-on-year. Excluding seasonal and calendar factors, Rosstat estimates industrial production increased by 3.0% month-on-month in October, after a 0.9% month-on-month SA decrease in September. Growth accelerated in the extractive industry to 1.3% year-on-year (from 0.2% in September) and in the manufacturing industry to 4.5% year-on-year (from 0.4% in September).

This surge may be explained by several factors:

· Sharp increase in output in sectors linked to the MIC, where there was an unexpected decline in September: in the production of other transport vehicles and equipment (including aviation equipment and shipbuilding), growth sharply accelerated to 41% year-on-year (from 6% in September); in the production of finished metal products (excluding machinery and equipment), growth was 19.4% year-on-year (after a 1.6% contraction in September). Annual growth slowed in another leading 'near-military' sector—the output of computers, electronic, and optical products—to 9.2% year-on-year (from 18.4% in September), while the production of pharmaceuticals and materials for medical and veterinary purposes maintains very high growth rates (20.3% year-on-year, after +21.2% in September).

· Improved dynamics in the extractive industry may be due to increased gas production (+2% year-on-year after -5.6% in September) and, likely, oil production against the background of a gradual easing of OPEC+ restrictions.

· Stabilisation in oil refining (the contraction in the production of coke and petroleum products slowed to -0.1% year-on-year after -4.2% in September and -6.3% in August).

However, of the 28 main types of extractive and manufacturing production, positive annual dynamics in October were observed in only nine, and in eight for 10M25.

Overall for 10M25, the manufacturing industry grew by 3.1%, compared to 9.3% in 10M24. The growth leaders for 10M25 remain the same: production of other transport vehicles and equipment (including aviation equipment and shipbuilding) at 33.1%; production of finished metal products (excluding machinery and equipment) at 15.9%; production of pharmaceuticals and materials for medical and veterinary purposes at 15.9%; and the output of computers, electronic, and optical products at 13.6%.

The weakest situation for 10M25 persists in:

· Production of motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers (-22.2%).

· Production of leather and leather goods (including footwear) (-13.6%).

· Production of building materials (other non-metallic mineral products) (-8.6%).

· Production of furniture (-7.9%).

· Production of rubber and plastic products (-7.2%).

Other underperformers include: metallurgical production (-3.8%); wood processing and wood/cork products (-2.8%); clothing production (-2.7%); and coal mining (-1.6%). Even "defensive" sectors show a moderate negative: production of chemical substances and chemical products (-1.0%); production of food products (-0.6%), and beverages (-3.7%). Electricity generation rose by 0.3% year-on-year compared to October 2024.

Outlook and Consumption Trends

Operating indicators for November suggest that industry is unlikely to repeat the October success. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Manufacturing (S&P Global) in November rose only slightly (to 48.3 from 48 points in October), remaining in the contraction zone (below 50) for the sixth consecutive month. The contraction in the production component was the most significant since April 2022. This was influenced by the continuing contraction in demand (fewer new orders) and supply problems (raw material shortages and logistics delays). Purchasing activity slowed amid declining new orders, and the optimism index only slightly recovered from the three-year low in October. The acceleration of PMI's inflationary components is also noteworthy—cost inflation (attributed by companies to rising raw material and utility prices) and output price inflation (transferring increased costs to consumers at the fastest pace since March).

It can be assumed that both businesses and consumers are preparing for the upcoming VAT increase from the new year. Other operational indicators, such as surveys from the Institute of National Economic Forecasting (INP) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, indicate that the balance of demand change assessments fell by six points in November, after rising in October; the share of demand assessed as "normal" fell to 34%, the lowest level since the 2008–2009 crisis, and demand forecasts worsened, almost returning to the 44-month low of August. However, the Bank of Russia's "enterprise monitoring" claims that business climate assessments grew in November compared to October, primarily due to improved production and demand expectations.

Another distinguishing feature of the October statistics was the sharp acceleration in consumption. MinEk estimates the total turnover of retail trade, public catering, and paid services to the population rose by 4.8% year-on-year in October, compared to 2.6% in September. Retail trade turnover accelerated its growth to 4.8% year-on-year (the maximum since December last year), compared to 1.8% in September. This acceleration occurred in both the food segment (2.8% year-on-year, after 1.2% in September) and, most notably, in non-food products (a record for this year at 6.8% year-on-year, compared to 2.5% in September). This is primarily linked to the revival of demand for carsahead of the increase in the recycling fee. Sales of new passenger cars in Russia in October 2025 reached 165,702, which is 3% less than in October 2024 but 35% more than in September 2025, marking the best result of the current year. The growth of paid services turnover in October also accelerated to 3.4% year-on-year (the maximum this year), and the September result was revised upward to 3.4% year-on-year (previous estimate 2.9%). The growth of public catering turnover remains the most impressive (+11.2% year-on-year, compared to 10.3% in September).

Consumption remains relatively stable due to the still doubledigit wage growth (average across the economy). For example, the PMI for Russia's Services Sector (S&P Global) rose to 52.2 points in November (from 51.7 in October), making the growth rate of activity in the sector the highest in six months. However, the weekly SberIndex data currently available suggests that real consumer spending was lower in November than last year. Sales of new passenger cars in Russia in November fell by 22.8% relative to October, although this was 5% higher than in November last year.

If the assumption is correct that consumption growth is currently supported by fears of price increases after the recycling fee and VAT increases, as well as the tightening of conditions for subsidised family mortgages, then demand may stagnate or even contract in early 2026. This could be contributed by the realisation of deferred demand, the expected slowdown in wage growth, and still high interest rates. Demand may revive again in the second half of 2026 as the easing of monetary policy is expected to continue.

The annual dynamic of transport freight turnover in October showed a positive trend for the first time since June (+2.7% year-on-year), primarily due to railway transport, which grew for the first time since the beginning of the year (4.3% year-on-year). Loading on the Russian Railways network from January to November 2025 decreased by 5.6%compared to the same period last year. "Under the influence of negative external factors, the loading of construction materials fell by 11%, ferrous metals by 17.4%, and coal by 1.5% since the start of the year. Due to repairs at oil refineries, the shipment of oil cargo decreased by 5.2%". However, grain loading has increased for the fourth consecutive month across the network, and the export of fertilisers and iron ore continues to grow.

Wholesale trade fell back into the negative in October (-2.5% year-on-year), after a brief rise in September (+2.0% year-on-year). The overall contraction in wholesale trade for 10M25 may be related to the decrease in gas exports and the weak dynamic of imports.

Construction growth accelerated in October to 2.3% year-on-year (from 0.2% in September). The annual dynamic of commissioned residential buildings turned positive for the first time since March (+9% compared to October 2024, after an 8.3% contraction in September). Russian Deputy Prime Minister M. Khusnullin estimates that housing commissioning for 2025 will be at least 105 million square metres (compared to 107 million in 2024), meaning the result will be better than previously expected due to "old groundwork". However, the future situation appears more concerning, as 22% fewer permits for new construction have been issued, and about 25% of the issued construction decisions are not implemented. Nevertheless, demand for real estate is reviving, although perhaps temporarily. Despite still-high interest rates (the average rate for market loans in October was 19.7%), household mortgage debt increased by 1.2% in October(after 0.8% in September), which "generally corresponds to the average monthly growth rate for the first half of 2024 (+1.3%), when the market was heated by the expectation of the end of the mass 'Subsidised Mortgage'". The regulator believes this dynamic may be partly related to news about the possible tightening of conditions for the "Family Mortgage" programme in 2026. The share of state-supported subsidised mortgages in issued loans is gradually decreasing but is still very high (75%).

Company profits (salaried financial result) for January–September 2025 decreased by 7.7% compared to the same period last year, and the share of unprofitable companies rose to 29.3%. Declines were observed in: mineral extraction(40.9%), manufacturing (11.2%), trade (20.3%), and construction (5.5%).

The labour market remains undersupplied, although some indicators can be interpreted as a slight easing of tension (as the economy cools). Unemployment in October remained at the September level (2.2%), close to the historical minimum (2.1% in August). The seasonally adjusted number of employed people (MinEk estimate) remains near the historical maximum of recent months (74.6 million compared to 74.5 million in September), and the number of unemployed remains near the minimum (1.7 million). The average job search time in October was 5.5 months (compared to 4.8 months in September and 5.2 months in October last year). The average actual duration of the working day for January–September 2025 was 7.12 hours, which is 0.4% lower than in January–September 2024. Indicators of underemployment in the third quarter of 2025 show that 3.9% of listed employees (excluding small businesses) worked part-time at the employer's initiative or by agreement (compared to 3.6% in the second quarter of 2025). The largest underemployment was observed in motor vehicle, trailer, and semi-trailer manufacturing, where 15.5% of listed employees worked part-time at the employer's initiative.

Rosstat data on wage dynamics is disclosed with a one-month delay. Annual wage growth in September accelerated compared to August to 13.1% year-on-year in nominal terms and 4.7% year-on-year in real terms (compared to 12.2% and 3.8%, respectively, in August). Overall for January–September, the growth of the average accrued wage slowed compared to 2024 but remained high (14.3% year-on-year versus 18.0% in nominal terms, and 4.5% year-on-year versus 9.0% in real terms). The Bank of Russia often points out that real wages are still growing faster than productivity (viewing this as a source of inflationary pressure), but wage growth is noticeably slowing.

Operating data on the labour market (hh.ru) indicates a continuing decline in its "overheating," and the market is becoming increasingly competitive for workers. In November, the hh index (the ratio of active résumés to active vacancies) grew to 8.1 (compared to 7.3 in October and 4.2 in November last year). An index value of 8.0–11.9corresponds to a high level of competition among job seekers. The number of open vacancies in November was 31% lower than in September last year. Thus, operative indicators increasingly point to signs of a cooling labour market.

Investments in fixed capital contracted by 3.1% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, the first contraction since 2020. For 9M25, investments grew by only 0.5%, compared to 9.0% for 9M24. Decreased investment activity may be affected by the prolonged period of high interest rates, the reduced availability of companies' own funds (the load of interest payments on profits reached a new historical maximum of 36% by the end of the third quarter, almost 10 percentage points higher than a year earlier), weakened demand, and the high overall level of uncertainty in the economy.

For 9M25, the share of own funds in the structure of investment sources increased to 61% (from 58.4% in 9M24), and the share of bank loans increased to 13.7% (from 11.2% in 9M24). The share of budgetary funds decreased to 12.9%(from 14.7%), and the share of borrowed funds from other organisations fell to 7.7% (from 9.2%).

In the sectoral breakdown for 9M25, investments fell in:

· Extractive industries (-0.4%).

· Construction (-18%).

· Transportation and storage (-28.8%).

· Information and communication activities (-4.7%).

Investments increased in:

· Manufacturing industry (+23.1%).

· Trade (+7.2%).

· Real estate operations (+14.3%).

In the manufacturing industry, the growth leaders for investments are the production of other transport vehicles and equipment (2.4 times increase), chemical substances and chemical products (+37.5%), and food products (+22.4%).

By Olga Belenkaya for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Russia).

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Date: December 05, 2025; Source: the National Bank of Kazakhstan