Ukraine risks repeating Afghanistan scenario: Kazakh analyst

    The protracted conflict in Ukraine might lead to the country repeating the scenario of the Balkan military confrontation in the 90s, possibly even leading to a devolution into another Afghanistan, Tengrinews cites Kazakh political analyst Dosym Satpayev as saying.
    Satpayev said he believes the conflict in Ukraine has stirred memories of old national and ethnic tensions that were observed during the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 90s, such as the territorial dispute of Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Moldova’s breakaway republic of Transdniester (Transnistria) located on the border with Ukraine, or the civil war in Tajikistan.
    The analyst stressed the need to stabilize the situation in Ukraine, because separatist moods have not only affected neighboring countries.
    “Most likely, even Moscow has come to understand that it does not fully control the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. And the provision of support to forces seeking to split the east of Ukraine fr om the rest of the country is a very serious threat. In the event the Ukrainian conflict escalates into a permanent zone of instability, the situation will not only affect this country’s neighbors”.
    “The tragedy with the airliner has shown that conflicts may affect citizens of countries, which are geographically distant fr om the conflict zones. If the situation is transposed to Central Asia, it would clearly highlight quite a few potential conflict zones in our region, some of which are connected to separatist inclinations," he said.
    Satpayev said the conflict was now at the stage of balkanisation: a surge of separatism and a proclamation of new states. He said he is convinced that a new Afghanistan could emerge in the center of Europe, if the conflict is not resolved at its current stage.
    “The war has been going on for some time already, and the international community has had to put much effort into regulating the conflict. (…) Currently, Ukraine is entering the balkanization stage. The worst case scenario is for this balkanization to evolve into afghanization: when Ukraine turns into a zone of constant instability, wh ere different armed groups operate without control from anyone – neither the West, nor Moscow – and power lies not in the hands of politicians, but in those of warlords.”
    He added Ukraine could also repeat the fate of Chechnya. "Some experts have rightly stated that Ukraine may become to be an analog of Chechnya, wh ere many representatives of radical organizations receive military training. In the future, similar individuals might appear in other post-Soviet countries, and the question of national security will come forward, in Kazakhstan as well," Satpayev said.
    The conflict in Ukraine took a new turn last week, when a Malaysia Airlines passenger airplane with 298 people on board was shot down by a surface-to-air missile over the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic.
    Russia, Ukraine and the separatists have all given different versions of what happened. International investigators are trying to get access to physical evidence, which might help to reconstruct the crash in rebel-controlled territory, Tengrinews.kz reports