Last week Kyrgyzstan President Almazbek Atambayev denounced a series of agreements with Kazakhstan one week before the inauguration of the new president. Bishkek also refused to accept $100 million within an assistance protocol to Kyrgyzstan. Realnoe Vremya reached out to famous Russian journalist and expert in CIS countries Arkady Dubnov who told how relations between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan worsened, what the rupture of several agreements would lead to and whether an armed conflict between these countries was possible.
The Kyrgyz ASSR that included a big part of today's Kazakhstan existed in the first ten years of the Soviet regime. Probably it gave some representatives of the Kyrgyz elite a reason to consider the Kazakhs' claim to the status of older brother exaggerated because the republic's name mentioned the Kyrgyz, not Kazakhs. However, these historical reminiscences are unlikely to help understand these relations.
It is more important that these countries were in an unequal economic situation with the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Kazakhstan was initially famous for its big oil and gas reserves. It also had highly developed industrial infrastructure: a mining and processing complex, uranium ore production. What is more, Baikonur Cosmodrome is located there. It predetermined significant investments from the Soviet centre.
Kyrgyzstan did not have such resources. Great Issyk-Kul and lately Kyrgyz writer Chinghiz Aitmatov (whose mother was Tatar, by the way) were its considerable 'trademarks'. In the course of time, it turned out that Kazakhstan started to be considerably ahead of Kyrgyzstan in economic development. For instance, the demonstration was that representatives of the Kazakh elite were the most frequent guests or owners of the best parts of the Issyk-Kul bank.
It's quite possible that the Kyrgyz had not the noblest feelings for their ethnic relatives. But I don't think it defined relations at the top until the second coup took place in Kyrgyzstan in 2010. Kurmanbek Bakiyev who was the president then had to escape, and Kazakhstan became his refuge. In addition, it was done in line with the new Kyrgyz officials' wishes – they wanted to get rid of Bakiyev as soon as possible to avoid a serious bloodbath. The case was that his supporters did start a bloodbath – it took place, in fact, but during the early hours.
Atambayev who came to power as a result of the elections in 2011 didn't obviously tilt in favour of insults to Kazakhstan first by reproaching it different types of disregard for his country. It became obvious after the Kazakhstan administration wasn't very enthusiastic about the fact that Kyrgyzstan would swifly join the Eurasian Economic Union. Astana understood it was unlikely to pay out big dividends to Kazakhstan because a constant flow of Chinese counterfeits would flow enter their territory as soon as the borders with Kyrgyzstan would open. These fears were confirmed to a certain degree.
I suppose that when Atambayev was in the United States at the September UN session, he knew that Kazakhstan President Nazarbayev received Babanov (editor's Note: Omurbek Babanov is an oppositionist candidate for the presidency in Kyrgyzstan) in Astana, he talked to him. Then Nazarbayev's press service told about it. He considered it as evidence that the Kazakh President supported Babanov.
It was also well known earlier that Babanov had certain support in neighbouring countries. But if Atambayev had been a rational political leader, he would have never allowed to create hysteria because of it. In general, it means that the real performance of the Eurasian Union in Central Asia can be considered disrupted in the short run. The activity of commercial clans in Kyrgyzstan who earn millions by underground transit from China will remain. Everything will be fine in Kyrgyzstan itself. But everything won't be fine in the Eurasian space until the Eurasian Union leaders start to solve this problem after Atambayev finally leaves his post. I don't know how they will solve it – this issue takes years.
His hysteria proved he really saw Omurbek Babanov as a serious candidate for the presidency who would be able to win over his favourite Jeenbekov. He feared that Babanov could really win, and then Atambayev's plans for after the elections could be buried. For this reason, he started to promote a hysteric intrigue that led to the current state of affairs between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
The atmosphere in human relations between these countries have worsened a lot, but people are practical everywhere, they understand their interests.
Atambayev will go, it will take some time for the new president of Kyrgyzstan to free himself from his tenacious influence. As soon as that happens, the countries will recover the relations.
Reported by Lina Sarimova for Realnoye Vremya (fragments).
