Last week, the Moscow-based Interstate Statistics Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) posted the highlights of the consolidated macroeconomic performance during the first seven months of the current year in comparison with the same period of 2017. The CIS unites all former Soviet republics except Georgia and the three Baltic states.
Kazakhstan, the region’s largest economy under the shadows of Russia and China, posted 5.1 per cent industrial growth on-year in the first seven month of the current year, against a 4.1 per cent GDP increase over the first half of the year. Capital investments grew by a healthy-looking 25.8 per cent on-year in the first 7 months. Spendthrift by the population in the same period, reflected in the retail trade index, grew by 5.6 per cent on-year, accompanied by a worrisome 9.4 per cent increase in industrial production costs and a moderate consumer inflation of 2.7 per cent. This trend, if it persists, suggest more purchasing power but also a steeper inflation rate for the rest of the year.
Moreover, in July Kazakhstan’s industrial output underwent a sharp setback with a net on-month decline of 3 per cent, with retail turnover reducing to plus 3.1 per cent on-month. As though to counter the curve, increase in industry costs reduced to 1.2 per cent on-month, resulting in an on-month inflation of only 0.1 per cent.
As for the Russian Federation, the economy of which has a heavy impact on all Central Asian states, the overall trend appears to be quite similar to that of Kazakhstan. Industrial output increase by 3.1 per cent on-year in the first 7 months, against 1.6 per cent on-year growth in GDP in the first half year. Capital investments rose by 3.2 per cent over the first 7 months, and retail trade by 2.5 per cent. Industrial production costs increased by 9.4 per cent on-year, accompanied by consumer inflation of 2.4 per cent.
Being the poorest nation within the former USSR domain, Tajikistan has nonetheless posted the conglomerate’s highest industrial output increase through the first seven months of the year with an on-year indicator of 13 per cent. In the first half year of 2018, GDP increased by 7.2 per cent mainly due to lack of purchasing power, with a 5.3 per cent increase in retail trade, its main indicator, over the first 7 months.
Capital investments in the country increased by 33.1 per cent on-year in the first seven months, thereby raising high hopes for a better economic performance in the near future. Industrial production costs rose by 0.8 per cent, accompanied by an increase in the consumer index of a modest 2 per cent.
Tajikistan nevertheless witnessed a sharp drop in industrial output in July from the previous month by an alarming 35.8 per cent. Retail turnover through the month grew by 9.5 per cent, accompanied by a 1.1 per cent on-month inflation. In the absence of a swift recovery through summer, this could well negatively affect the country’s industrial and economic performance through the rest of the year.
An almost equally impressive performance has been posted by Uzbekistan, with 10.7 per cent on-year industrial growth in the first 7 months, and a 4.9 per cent overall economic growth in the first half of this year. Capital investments in the first half saw a moderate 4.4 per cent on-year growth. Retail trade in the first 7 months increased by only 4.4 per cent on-year, in line with an inflation of 5 per cent through the period. The CISISC failed to post month-on-month indicators on Uzbekistan due to lack of timely reporting by the local statistics agency.
A trend inverse to that of Tajikistan was posted by Kyrgyzstan, which woke up late from a long winter sleep this year. The country posted an 8.7 per cent net industrial decline on-year in the first 7 months of 2018, along with a 0.2 setback in GDP. In July, however, Kyrgyzstan witnessed an on-month increase in GDP of 6.4 per cent, triggered by an impressive growth in industrial output of 20.3 per cent through the month.
Capital investment in Kyrgyzstan in the first 7 months of 2018 showed a modest 3.4 per cent increase year-on-year, to be considered insufficient to sustain the momentary impulse. On the consumer side, an acceptable 5.2 per cent increase in retail trade accompanied by an industrial cost index of minus 0.1 per cent and a deflation of 0.8 per cent strongly suggests that the downstream segment of the economy is under control.
By Charles van der Leeuw for Newsline, based on CISISC data.
