Rather spectacular-looking trade figures for the wider Central Asian region have been recently published by the Interstate Statistics Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which unites all former Soviet republics except Georgia and the three Baltic states. Trade, especially with countries outside the conglomerate keeps booming, resulting in an overall trade surplus of 102.5 billion expressed in US dollars in the first half of the current year, up from $70.5 billion in the same period of 2017. Exports so far this year worth $288 billion exceeded imports worth $186.1bn by about a third.
The internal breakdown with the nine states under the eyeglass, as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan still fail to report adequately to the Committee, looks somewhat less glorious, though. As it appears, only three countries are responsible for the positive trade balance. Those three happen to be the sole three hydrocarbon exporters within the group (once more, excluding Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan). Higher oil prices rather than significant increases in physical volumes are supposed to be held responsible for the boost. This also explains why trade deficits of oil-importing CIS republics have dramatically increased to similar proportions as their suppliers’ surpluses did.
The three CIS hydrocarbon powers, namely Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, together sold goods worth in the order of $240 billion through the period, well over half of which consisted of oil and gas. The bulk of the exports worth $213.3 billion fell on the Russian Federation, followed by Kazakhstan with $23.26 billion, and Azerbaijan with $8.66 billion. On-year increases on the back of high sales prices stood at 26.6, 22.3 and 21.7 per cent respectively.
By contrast, Kyrgyzstan, with Russia and Kazakhstan member of the CIS’s “first gear” grouping known as the Eurasian Economic Union, posted a trade deficit of $1.626 billion in the first half of 2018, up from $1.194bn on-year and a lot more than its small, cash-strapped economy can afford. Exports rose by only 2.7 per cent on-year through the period to $811.8 million, while imports soared by 22.8 per cent to $2.438 billion.
In even poorer Tajikistan, figures hardly look any better. Even though revenues on exports in the first half of 2018 increased by 15.3 per cent on-year to $528.3 million, imports grew by 22.7 per cent to $1.531 billion. As a result, the country’s external trade deficit went up from $790 million in the first half of 2017 to just over a billion greenbacks this year.
Sales and purchased outside the CIS appear to make up for the bulk of the mix of success and failure within the conglomerate. Thus, within this segment Kazakhstan posted a net surplus of $12.9 billion through the first 6 months, up from just below $10bn a year earlier. Revenues on exports were up by 24.3 per cent on-year to $$19.6 billion and imports by 15.8 per cent to $6.72 billion. For Azerbaijan, the non-CIS external trade surplus was up from $4.16bn to $4.73bn with exports up 23.2 per cent to $8bn and imports up 39.6 per cent to $3.38bn. The Russian Federation posted a 27.9 per cent rise in export revenues to $187.2bn, together with a rise in imports of 14 per cent to $102.6bn, resulting in a trade surplus up from $56.3 billion a year earlier to $84.6 billion in the first six months of this year.
On the low end of the line, we find Tajikistan with a deteriorating picture of a negligible rise in exports of 0.5 per cent to $266.7 million accompanied by imports soaring by 40.5 per cent to $668.8 million, resulting in a trade deficit which almost doubled from last year’s $210.5m to $402.1m this year. Only Kyrgyzstan has performed worse, with imports from outside the CIS surging by 41.5 per cent to $1.526bn along with a 14.6 per cent net decline in exports to $387.2m, resulting in a gaping trade deficit up from $625.3 in the first half of 2017 to a staggering $1.139 billion this year.
Even more disappointing for those on the losing end is the overall picture offered by the segment of internal trade within the CIS. Here, only the Russian Federation has posted a trade surplus over the first half of this year, against deficits in all other member states. Kazakhstan posted a deficit of close to 2 billion US dollar through the period, marginally down from $2.114bn a year earlier, with exports standing at $3.6bn and imports at just over $5.6 billion, both up by 12.7 and 5.6 per cent respectively. For Azerbaijan these figures stood at $730 million (up from $455m), $548m (up 2.8 per cent) and $1.28bn (up 29.4 per cent) respectively.
Kyrgyzstan’s trade deficit with other CIS states narrowed from $569 million to $487m in the period under review, caused by exports which increased by 26 per cent to $424.6m while imports remained about flat at $912 million. Here, Tajikistan also showed signs of improvement with exports up 35.9 per cent to $261.6m and imports up 11.7 per cent to $862.2m. Still, the country’s CIS trade was up from $579.4 million last year to just over $600m in the first half of 2018.
The entire picture, however ill-balanced, nevertheless clearly demonstrates that claims frequently propagated by western (mostly US and UK) media as though Russia’s economy should be considered “hurt” or “damaged” by so-called sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union, dragging other former Soviet republics along with it, appear to be contradicted by plain numbers. The fact that dependence on commodity markets exposes their exporters to the ups and downs in external demand and price settings beyond their control, appears to be offset by the fact that as for now the ups appear to prevail, even if on the consuming side, both within and outside the CIS, ups on the supply side tend to result in downs.
By Charles van der Leeuw for Kazakhstan Newsline, Kyrgyzstan Newsline, Tajikistan Newsline and Uzbekistan Newsline, based on data provided by the CISISC.
