Some would call it stagnant, other prefer the term stable. With an overall population standing at just below 18.2 million and an unemployment of just under 5 per cent of the working force, Kazakhstan posted a 4.5 per cent year-on-year short-term growth indicator (a conditional indicator for GDP) over the first eight months of the current year, according to figures presented last week by the National Statistics Agency.
Within the indicator, industrial output, including hydrocarbon and mining yield, posted 4.7 per cent on-year increase, topped by transportation with 4.8 per cent growth and trade with 5.8 per cent, figures show. The shortlist is bottomed by communication with 4.5, agriculture with 2.4 and construction with 0.8 per cent on-year growth.
In cash value given in local currency, in which the macroeconomic data are expressed, the “industry” posted an increase from 14.2 trillion Kazakh tenge to 17.8 trillion (around 50 billion US dollar) between the first eight months of 2017 and the same period this year. The figure is somewhat distorted given the fact that Kazakhstan’s national currency lost in the order of 20 per cent against hard currencies in the meantime. This, expressed in US dollar or euro, makes the increase in cash revenue all but flat.
Subsoil industries, including oil, gas and metals, accounted for KZT9.8 trillion, up from 7.3 trillion. Manufacturing went up from KZT5.74tr to 6.7tr. The rest onsists of small amounts earned on industry-related services such as water, power and gas distribution.
Crude oil, which remains Kazakhstan’s core moneymaker, made up jut below 51.1 million tonne, close to two-thirds of which was produced in the northwest of the country. Its cash value has been put at 8 trillion Kazakh tenge.
The output of gas condensate, which is almost exclusively won at the Karachaganak field in northern Kazakhstan just south of Orenburg, came close to 8.85s million tonne in the period under review. No cash valuation has been given, due to the fact that there is no global benchmark price for gas condensate.
Natural gas, equally mainly produced at Karachaganak, was produced in volumes of just over 15.5 billion cubic metre, worth 134.3 billion tenge. Together with associated gas, a byproduct of crude oil, total output made up 37.3 billion m3. Since much of the associated gas is used for well reinjection in order to keep pressures stable, total cash value must be lower, but again no indicator has been given.
Coal production in Kazakhstan, which ranks among the world top-10 producers, amounted to 73.6 million tonne in the period under review. Most of it consists of lignite (70.8mt) and is won mainly in the north- and central east of the country. The cash value of the output came close to 192.3 billion Kazakh tenge.
Kazakhstan’s metal mining sector’s total cash value has been put at 916 billion tenge over the first eight months of 2018. Iron ore was mined in volumes of 13.13 million tonne through the period, worth 187.33 billion tenge.
Copper ore output, like coal mainly produced in the north- and central east of the country, stood at 68.16mt. Output of bauxite, won exclusively in the northern province of Kostanay, stood at 3.73 million tonne. Lead in concentrated form was produced at 55,300 tonne. Manganese ore output came close to 0.92 million tonne. Just under 4.5 million tonne of chromite ore, won in Aktobein the north of Kazakhstan, was mined, out of which 3.24 million tonne of chrome concentrate was won. No breakdown for the cash value of non-ferrous metals has been given, but the Statistics Agency has put its joint cash value over the period at 728.9 billion Kazakh tenge.
With modest growth in volumes but (especially concerning oil) yet impressive revenue, what drips down of all the fortunes gathered by Kazakhstan’s working force, what is dripping down to the overall population looks less impressive, however. According to statistics, the average wage in August this year came close to 160,000 Kazakh tenge (about 400 US dollar), which is less than twice the minimum wage. Attempts by the government to lighten tax burdens for ordinary citizens and increase socioeconomic budget expenses should therefore be followed by more than ordinary attention.
By Charles van der Leeuw, based on data by the National Statistics Agency of Kazakhstan.
