The international rating agency S&P Global Ratings confirmed the long-term and short-term credit ratings of Kazakhstan for obligations in foreign and national currencies at the level of "BBB-/A3", the agency reported. The rating forecast is Stable.
The agency also confirmed Kazakhstan’s national scale rating at kzAAA. The assessment of the risk of transfer and currency conversion for Kazakhstan non-sovereign borrowers remains at the level of BBB.
“The stable outlook reflects our expectations that in the next two years the fiscal indicators of the government and foreign economic indicators will remain strong,” the press release of S&P said.
The agency can raise ratings in the event of a significant increase in the effectiveness of monetary policy, for example, due to a significant strengthening of the banking system, including improving the quality of regulatory oversight and reducing the concentration of loan portfolios on individual borrowers.
“A prolonged and sharp drop in oil prices or a reduction in oil production to a lower level than we had predicted could put pressure on the level of ratings if they lead to a deterioration in Kazakhstan’s foreign economic indicators. This can happen if the country's aggregate external financing needs predicted by the country exceed 100% of current account receipts plus available reserves,” the agency analysts say.
S&P may also downgrade Kazakhstan’s ratings if destabilising factors recur, such as a significant increase in dollarization of residents' deposits in the country's banking sector.
Agency analysts expect Kazakhstan's real GDP to increase by 2.9% in 2019 after a forecast increase of 3.5% last year. In 2020, the economic growth rates, according to their estimates, will be 3%, 3.1% in 2021, 3.2% in 2022.
Growth of GDP per capita is expected to be 1.6% this year, 1.7% in 2020, 1.8% in 2021 and 1.9% in 2022.
Agency experts believe that the consumer price index (CPI) for the current year will increase by 6% in 2020-2021.
Reported by Kapital (Kazakhstan).
