According to the baseline scenario, Kazakhstan's GDP growth in 2021 is expected to be 3.6-3.9% with a further acceleration to 4.0%-4.3% in 2022. Deputy Chairman of the National Bank Akylzhan Baimagambetov told about it.
According to the previous forecast, economic growth was expected in the range of 3.4%-3.7%, the previous forecast was 3.7%-4%.
According to him, in view of the faster economic recovery, the National Bank revised its forecasts upward. A faster recovery in business activity is expected, as well as an increase in household income, which will contribute to the expansion of aggregate demand, which will become a driver of economic growth. The restraining effect on the GDP dynamics will be exerted by the restoration of imports.
Speaking about the forecast round May-June 2021, Baimagambetov noted that the oil price has been revised.
“At present, world prices for Brent crude oil are above $70 per barrel, which is due to the recovery of world oil demand in the context of mass vaccinations and the operation of the OPEC+ agreement to cut oil production. However, as production in the world gradually increases, the oil price will decrease from the current values, and the National Bank considers the Brent oil price at $60 per barrel in 2021-2022 as a baseline scenario, which is consistent with the forecasts of international organisations,” he said.
Baimagambetov also said that the recovery in consumer demand is facilitated by an increase in real wages against the background of improved business activity in the sectors of the economy, as well as an increase in budget spending on pensions and scholarships. At the end of the first quarter of 2021, the growth of real incomes of the population amounted to 3.4% in annual terms. The expansion of consumer demand is also traced in the accelerated dynamics of retail trade, a significant increase in consumer imports, especially non-food products, and high growth rates of retail lending. Large-scale vaccination of the population and easing of quarantine restrictions have a positive effect on demand. The IMF improved its forecast for Kazakhstan's GDP growth in 2021 by 3.2%.
At the end of 2020, Kazakhstan's GDP fell by 2.6%. In the three-year budget for 2021-2023, real GDP growth is projected at 2.8% in 2021, however, as reported, the forecast could be raised to 3.1%. Inflation in Kazakhstan in 2020 was 7.5%. According to the forecasts of the National Bank, in 2021 inflation will be in the target corridor of 4-6%, closer to the upper border.
Reported by Kursiv (Kazakhstan).
